Recent discussions around Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-Year Treasury, highlight concerns related to delivery metrics and actions from the Federal Reserve. The market is experiencing tension characterized by delivery fails on 10-year Treasury notes, indicating underlying stress within the bond market. Although these bonds are essential for institutional investors, their yields and auction outcomes are currently under scrutiny. Overall, these events demonstrate a critical environment for intermediate treasuries with significant attention to market performance. The price action of Intermediate Treasuries (IEF) asset class is shaped by numerous forces, ranging from broad macroeconomic trends to asset-specific performance and market structure. The trend sentiment at -0.1 is modestly bearish. The market sentiment at -0.3 is modestly bearish. Trend sentiment measures the current trend of the stock price, and market sentiment reflects what market participants collectively think where the price will move next.IEF is likely to move down since both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative. The positive sentiment force for sector is at 0, and the negative at -0.3 on 2025-12-28. The forces of Asset Sentiment (-1), and Asset Price Trend (-0.1) will drive down the price. The forces of Price Level Sentiment (0), and Option Sentiment (0) will drive up the price. The sentiment for Asset Price Trend is calculated based on IEF trend. The sentiment for Option Speculation is calculated from put/call ratio. Price Level sentiment is positive when oversold, and negative when overbought. Asset Sentiment scores are extracted from headlines and market commentary. All sentiment scores are normalized on a -10 - +10 scale. The price level reaches 100 at Bollinger upper band, and zero at lower band.

IEF
Date	Attention	Price	Price Level	Change	SMA10 Trend	Trend Sentiment	Hourly Trend	Hourly StdDev	Market Sentiment	Action	P	Asset Sentiment	News Sentiment
2025-12-28	0%(0.1%)					-0.1	0%		-0.3			-1	0
2025-12-27	0%(0.1%)					-0.1	0%		-0.3			-1	0
2025-12-26	0%(0.1%)	96.44	45	0.09%	0%	-0.1	0%	0.1%	0.4	Long	65%	0	-5.5
2025-12-25	0%(0.1%)					-0.1	0%		-0.1			0	0
2025-12-24	1%(0.1%)	96.35	35	0.26%	0%	-0.1	0%	0.1%	0.4	Wait	50%	0	1.3
2025-12-23	0%(0%)	96.1	23	-0.04%	0%	-0.1	-0.1%	0.1%	0.5	Short	65%	0	0
2025-12-22	0%(0%)	96.14	21	-0.1%	0%	-0.1	0%	0.2%	0.8	Long	60%	1	6
2025-12-21	0%(0%)					-0.1	0%		0.3			1	0
2025-12-20	0%(0%)					-0.1	0%		0.3			1	0
2025-12-19	0%(0%)	96.24	26	-0.55%	0%	-0.1	0%	0.2%	0.6	Wait	50%	1	1.3
Wait action is recommended in three scenarios with either high uncertainty or high risk: 1. The trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. 2. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive, but the price level is elevated. 3. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative, but the price level is depressed. In an uptrend, as an investor, you may want to wait for the pullback to open long position. In a downtrend, the price will likely rebound after huge decline. As an investor, you may want to wait for the rebound to exit long position.
Market sentiment will accelerate the current trend when both trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the same direction. Market sentiment will generate volatility when it's at the opposite direction of the trend sentiment. News sentiment measures the daily emotion of the market. News sentiment may impact the daily price change while market sentiment is a more stable and consistent moving force.